Timing Is Everything in Watch Collecting
Luxury watch prices are cyclical. After a volatile 2022–2023 correction, the 2024 market is showing signs of renewed strength—especially in vintage Rolex, independent brands, and hard-to-source modern models.
With input from Bond Street Auctions and expert Adam Levinsohn, here’s a list of the top 7 watches to consider buying before values jump again.
1. Rolex Explorer II (Ref. 16570)
• Why Buy: Discontinued, undervalued, neo-vintage
• 2024 Avg. Auction Price: $8,700
• Upside: +20–30% expected by Q4
Levinsohn says, “Collectors are finally catching on to the 16570’s sleeper value—especially with white ‘polar’ dials.”
2. Patek Philippe 3940J
• Why Buy: Classic perpetual calendar, historically underpriced
• 2024 Avg. Auction Price: $75,000
• Upside: Long-term compounding value
Produced in the 1980s–90s, the 3940 is a grail-level piece that remains accessible compared to modern equivalents.
3. Audemars Piguet Royal Oak 14790ST
• Why Buy: Mid-size Royal Oak, pre-ceramic, cult collector interest
• 2024 Avg. Auction Price: $36,000
• Upside: High if AP restricts future steel production
“14790s are the next 15202s. They’re just flying under radar—barely,” Levinsohn says.
4. F.P. Journe Chronomètre Bleu
• Why Buy: Low production, indie brand with global demand
• 2024 Avg. Auction Price: $148,000
• Upside: Strong long-term upside, especially if production tightens
Journe has built a cult-like following. The Bleu is his most accessible icon—and resale demand is red hot.
5. Rolex GMT-Master II “Batman” (Ref. 126710BLNR)
• Why Buy: Popular model, increasingly hard to find at retail
• 2024 Avg. Auction Price: $16,500
• Upside: +10–15% as Rolex AD allocation shrinks
Levinsohn warns, “Once Rolex updates or retires the BLNR, prices will pop.”
6. Cartier Tank Louis (Vintage Manual Wind)
• Why Buy: Classic style, strong collector base
• 2024 Avg. Auction Price: $4,800
• Upside: +25% projected if celebrities keep wearing them
The vintage manual Tanks are finally getting respect from global collectors—and auction demand is rising fast.
7. Omega Speedmaster “Sapphire Sandwich” (Ref. 310.30.42.50.01.002)
• Why Buy: Updated movement (Cal. 3861), overlooked by flippers
• 2024 Avg. Auction Price: $7,200
• Upside: Modest, but stable—ideal for first-time collectors
“It’s a future-proof Speedmaster—perfect for daily wear or long-term hold,” says Levinsohn.
Bonus Picks: Budget Watches with Big Upside
Model Avg. Price Why It’s Hot
Tudor Pelagos FXD $3,900 Lightweight, military link
Grand Seiko SBGA211 “Snowflake” $4,950 Unique dial, Spring Drive
Longines Heritage Classic $1,800 Entry-level vintage charm
FAQs
Why are prices expected to rise again?
Swiss exports are tightening, interest is returning from Asia, and demand is shifting back to collector-grade pieces.
Are auctions better than grey dealers for value buying?
Yes—auction prices reflect real-time market value, often without retail markups.
How do I track value trends?
Follow auction results from Bond Street and tools like WatchCharts for pricing data.
Start Watching the Market Now
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